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Predicting the property market, like the weather, can be an embarrassing task. For all the news stories of property prices over the last year, nothing much happened (prices ended slightly higher over the period). However, like the weather, predicting that it will be the same today as it was tomorrow is right more often than not, so in this vein my prediction will be ‘more of the same’ in 2011. Although prices may end up lower over the year, I don’t think it will be a significant drop and will probably be best described as flat.
My reasoning for this is firstly, it appears to be the favoured strategy of the Government, or at least the Housing Minister seems comfortable with house prices staying at the same level, so policy is likely to be in line with this goal. A drop in house prices is effectively a drop in the wealth of the nation and would rein in spending even more than is already predicted in 2011, something the Government will be keen to avoid. It seems the Government would prefer to see earnings rise to address the imbalance in the sales.